Dublin: Independent TD Catherine Connolly is on course to become the 10th President of Ireland, according to the latest Ipsos/B&A opinion poll released yesterday. The poll also revealed unusually high voter uncertainty, with 18% of respondents saying they may abstain or spoil their votes.
Of those surveyed, 12% said they would not vote, while 6% indicated they would deliberately spoil their ballot. In the 2018 presidential election, there were 18,448 spoiled votes—1.24% of all ballots cast—compared with 1.04% in 2011. If current trends continue, this year’s spoiled vote count could rise sharply. An online campaign promoting spoiled ballots has gained traction, though no TDs have endorsed it, raising concerns among political observers.
Connolly Leads by a Wide Margin
Connolly currently enjoys 38% voter support, while Fine Gael candidate Heather Humphreys trails with 20%. Meanwhile, 18% remain undecided, and 5% say they plan to vote for Jim Gove, despite his withdrawal from the race. Because his name will still appear on the ballot, his support could affect final tallies.
Overall, the two active candidates together account for just 58% of voter preference, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction. Nearly half of respondents (49%) said they were unhappy with the available candidates, while 40% expressed satisfaction.
A majority, 55%, believe the Constitution should be amended to make it easier for more individuals to seek the presidency. Businessman Gareth Sheridan and conservative campaigner Maria Stein were both excluded from the ballot after failing to secure the necessary legal nominations—an outcome that may have influenced public opinion.
Fewest Candidates in 35 Years
This year’s election features the smallest number of presidential candidates since 1973, when Erskine Childers of Fianna Fáil defeated Tom O’Higgins of Fine Gael. In comparison, the 2011 and 2018 elections featured seven and six candidates, respectively.
Political analysts attribute the shortage of candidates partly to a coordinated strategy by the major parties. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil reportedly instructed councillors not to support independent nominations, limiting potential contenders.
On the left, parties including Labour, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit, and several independents united behind Connolly. Sinn Féin, though capable of nominating its own candidate, opted not to do so to maintain unity on the left.
Campaigns Intensify Ahead of Election Day
Connolly has described Fine Gael’s growing unease about her lead in the polls as “telling”. Meanwhile, Humphreys has dismissed the survey results, maintaining optimism about her campaign’s momentum.
“There’s still a week to go,” Humphreys said. “Polls come and go—the real result will be on Election Day.”
Both candidates have stepped up their campaigns. Connolly visited Meath and Navan, while Humphreys campaigned in Cavan, where she criticised Connolly’s foreign policy stance.
“I am a proud European,” Humphreys said. “I would never insult France, the UK, or the US. These are vital partners for Ireland.”
With just days remaining before the vote, Ireland’s presidential race is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and polarised contests in recent history.
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