The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says a powerful El Niño event is now firmly established in the tropical Pacific and is expected to strengthen significantly in the coming months.
Forecasting centres put the likelihood of the phenomenon continuing through February 2027 at almost 100%. The event is expected to peak towards the end of 2026 and could influence global weather patterns well into 2027.
The WMO warns that almost all land areas could experience above-average temperatures, while shifting weather patterns may increase the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat in different regions.
Pacific Ocean temperatures are already exceptionally high, with surface waters recently up to 2.6°C above normal and much warmer conditions recorded beneath the surface.
UK Met Office forecasting expert Professor Adam Scaife described the event as potentially one of the strongest El Niños in living memory and said 2027 could surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
The WMO is coordinating international preparedness efforts, focusing on potential impacts on agriculture, food security, water supplies, health and energy.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but its effects are occurring against a backdrop of human-driven global warming and unusually warm oceans.
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