Dublin: Ireland could face an increase in heavy rain and stormy weather in the coming months as a strengthening El Niño weather pattern develops in the Pacific Ocean, according to meteorological forecasts.
Forecasters are warning that the emerging El Niño could become one of the strongest recorded in more than a century, with significant consequences for weather patterns around the world. The phenomenon is also expected to contribute to higher global temperatures.
More rain and storms for Ireland
El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become significantly warmer than normal. The resulting changes in atmospheric circulation can affect temperatures, rainfall and wind patterns across distant parts of the world.
Met Éireann and other European forecasting agencies expect the phenomenon to increase rainfall and storm activity across parts of northwestern Europe, including Ireland.
Meteorologist Paul Moore said warmer-than-average sea temperatures could contribute to lower atmospheric pressure, increased moisture levels and a longer or more intense period of rainfall.
While El Niño is a naturally occurring climate cycle that typically develops every two to seven years, scientists say climate change can amplify some of its effects.
Another record-hot year possible
Forecasters are also warning that global temperatures could reach record levels next year.
Adam Scaife of the UK’s Met Office said the strength of the expected El Niño would be exceptional compared with modern climate records. The combination of the natural warming pattern and the ongoing effects of human-induced climate change could push global temperatures even higher.
Drought hits Central America
While Ireland and parts of northwestern Europe could experience increased rainfall, El Niño is contributing to severe drought conditions in other regions.
Central America is already experiencing significant water shortages. Falling water levels have forced the Panama Canal to reduce the number of ships allowed to pass through the waterway.
The canal currently handles around 5% of global maritime trade and a significant share of US container traffic. Its operations depend heavily on rainfall and water stored in artificial lakes.
Authorities have warned that prolonged drought could create further challenges for the canal’s long-term operations. Honduras has also issued drought warnings covering a large part of the country.
Pacific temperatures rise sharply
According to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), sea-surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific are already significantly above the long-term average.
Forecasts indicate that temperatures could rise even further during the coming months, potentially producing an El Niño stronger than previous major events.
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