The poll, conducted by RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4, and Trinity College Dublin, surveyed 5,018 voters across 43 constituencies. It reveals that the three major parties are separated by just 1.6%, emphasising the highly competitive nature of the race.
Breakdown of First-Preference Votes
The exit poll indicates the following first-preference vote shares for other parties:
- Green Party: 4%
- Labour Party: 5%
- Social Democrats: 5.8%
- Aontú: 3.6%
- People Before Profit–Solidarity (PBP): 3.1%
- Independent Ireland: 2.2%
- Others: 1.9%
Comparison to 2020
In the 2020 general election, Sinn Féin secured 24.53% of first-preference votes, followed by Fianna Fáil at 22.18% and Fine Gael at 20.86%. The 2020 election culminated in a coalition government between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. This time, the two parties are forecast to capture 40.5% of the vote collectively, a slight decline from 43% in 2020.
Second-Preference Votes
Exit polls suggest Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are leading in second-preference votes, each garnering 20%, while Sinn Féin is predicted to attract 17%. Analysts note that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil appear to have cooperated in constituencies where one lacked a second candidate, boosting their second-preference tallies.
Potential Upsets and Sinn Féin’s Momentum
Observers caution that the exit poll may underestimate Sinn Féin’s performance. Voter turnout was at least 10% lower than in the previous election, but Sinn Féin supporters are thought to have shown up in greater numbers. This could potentially translate into Sinn Féin winning up to 50 seats, a significant increase from 2020.
Additionally, Sinn Féin’s strategy of running multiple candidates in many constituencies for the first time is expected to bolster their performance in second-preference votes.
Left-Wing and Emerging Parties
Labour Party: Expected to make modest gains.
Social Democrats: Strengthened by youth support, boosting their overall vote share.
Aontú: Likely to increase its presence in the Dáil, potentially winning 6–7 seats. Despite having fewer activists, Aontú has made inroads across constituencies.
Voter Dynamics
An estimated 2,500 new voters were added to the electoral rolls in each constituency following the election announcement, a factor that could influence outcomes.
Next Steps
Vote counting begins this morning, with sorting taking place early in the day. Preliminary trends are expected to emerge by this evening, offering a clearer picture of Ireland’s political future.
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