Dublin: Revised exit poll data has upended earlier predictions about the Irish general election. According to new analysis by pollster Kevin Cunningham and academic Stefan Müller, Fianna Fáil is now projected to lead with 21.3% of the vote, outperforming initial forecasts that placed the party in third. Meanwhile, Fine Gael is expected to secure second place with 20.8%, and Sinn Féin has dropped to third with 18.7%.
This contrasts sharply with the first exit poll, which suggested a near tie between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin at 21% and 21.1%, respectively, with Fianna Fáil trailing at 19.5%.
Party-by-Party Analysis
Fianna Fáil Resurgence
Fianna Fáil’s rise from the initial exit poll figures highlights a late surge in voter support, positioning the party as a frontrunner.
Fine Gael and Sinn Féin
Fine Gael, though maintaining a strong second-place position, has slipped slightly from its earlier standing. Sinn Féin, initially seen as a potential equal to Fine Gael, has seen its share decline, indicating challenges in translating voter enthusiasm into first-preference votes.
Green Party Struggles
The Green Party is expected to experience the most significant losses. Party leader Roderic O’Gorman has confirmed the Greens are likely to retain just three of their 12 seats. Former leader Eamon Ryan has suggested the party might fail to secure any additional seats, with O’Gorman fighting to hold his position in Dublin West. Key figures like Joe O’Brien and Oisín Smyth are already projected to lose their seats.
Social Democrats Gain Momentum
In contrast, the Social Democrats are poised for significant gains. Analysts predict the party will retain all its sitting seats and could double its total number of TDs. Observers suggest the Social Democrats may even secure a position in the next government.
Independents Show Modest Performance
Support for independent candidates remains steady at 13% of first-preference votes. However, unlike previous elections, there is no substantial surge in backing for independents.
Far-Right Parties Falter
The election has dealt a setback to far-right candidates, who previously gained traction in local and European elections on anti-immigration platforms. Several prominent far-right candidates are projected to lose, reflecting a lack of broader voter appeal.
Key Election Issues
Exit polls highlight that voters prioritised housing, the cost of living, and healthcare as their main concerns. These issues have shaped the election’s outcome, reflecting widespread public frustration with longstanding systemic challenges.
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