Dublin: Ireland’s heavy reliance on corporate tax revenues from US multinational companies is emerging as the country’s biggest financial vulnerability this year, according to leading economists. Experts caution that any reduction in this revenue stream could trigger a severe economic and fiscal setback.
Analysts warn that unforeseen geopolitical developments — including instability in Venezuela, US policy shifts under Donald Trump, and tensions in Iran — may disrupt international markets, potentially leading to a drop in tax income and tipping Ireland toward recession. Rising global volatility, they say, threatens the State’s ability to sustain economic growth and could worsen pressure on households already struggling with elevated living costs.
Grant Thornton chief economist Andrew Webb described the dependency as increasingly risky. While forecasts suggest continued expansion through 2026, he stressed that unexpected shocks could seriously undermine the treasury. A shift in tax structures by major corporations, he noted, could rapidly erode government revenue.
Dan O’Brien, chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs, said he remains confident about economic prospects but warned that any targeted policy changes by the US — particularly those affecting Ireland or its pharmaceutical sector — could have adverse consequences for the State’s finances.
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