Housing Delivery Expected to Decline, Falling Short of Targets
Dublin: A report by construction consultancy Mitchell McDermott predicts a decline in housing output over the next two to three years, with 2024 completions potentially as low as 32,000—falling short of government targets. This follows CSO data confirming just 30,330 homes were built in 2023, well below the anticipated 40,000.
A key concern is the drop in planning permissions, with approvals granted for only 35,000 homes in 2024, the lowest in six years and down from 41,000 in 2023. Paul Mitchell, co-author of the report, warns that without urgent intervention, achieving the 300,000-home target by 2030 is unlikely.
Planning System Challenges
The report highlights the high rejection rate of housing applications in fast-track planning systems. Between 2018 and 2024, nearly 200,000 housing units were proposed under Strategic Housing Developments (SHDs) and Large-scale Residential Developments (LRDs). However:
- 42,000 units (21%) were rejected,
- 27,000 (13.5%) faced judicial reviews,
- 11,000 (5.5%) remain undecided.
Ultimately, only 56% (112,000 units) received valid planning approval, but 29% of these have yet to commence construction—resulting in just 40% of all applications being developed or in progress.
To meet housing demand of 50,000 units annually, Mitchell estimates 125,000 planning applications per year would be required.
Challenges in Apartment Development
Apartment construction has significantly slowed, with completions dropping 24% in 2023 to 8,845 units. Planning permissions for apartments also declined to 14,000 in 2024, compared to 21,000 the previous year.
Mitchell attributes this to policy changes, including the 2022 ban on Build-to-Rent as a planning category and the earlier prohibition of co-living schemes. Additionally, the introduction of rent caps discouraged international investors, many of whom have since withdrawn from the market.
Funding Shortfalls & Infrastructure Gaps
In 2023, public sector intervention—through the LDA, local authorities, and approved housing bodies—prevented a more severe housing shortfall, delivering between 10,000 and 15,000 units. However, these entities are now facing financial constraints, and no strategy has been implemented to replace lost private sector investment.
To attract international funding, Mitchell suggests reinstating Build-to-Rent, adjusting rent cap policies, and ensuring clear, stable regulations for investors. Additionally, he emphasises the need for better coordination between infrastructure agencies such as the ESB, Irish Water, and Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) to ensure that zoned land is fully serviced and development-ready.
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