Fuel Prices in Ireland Could Rise by Up to 35 Cent Per Litre by January, Industry Warns

Dublin: Petrol and diesel prices in Ireland could increase by up to 35 cent per litre by January 1, according to Fuels for Ireland, the representative body for the country’s fuel distribution companies.

The organisation’s Chief Executive, Kevin McPartlan, clarified that the forecast refers to an increase of up to 35 cent per litre, not a 35% rise. He said the estimate is based on the government proceeding with its current tax and levy plans without any changes.

The government is gradually withdrawing the temporary excise duty reductions and the reduced National Oil Reserves Agency (NORA) levy that were introduced to help offset soaring fuel costs during the Middle East conflict.

At present, these measures reduce prices by approximately:

• 32 cent per litre on diesel

• 27 cent per litre on petrol

Rather than ending all at once, the reliefs will be phased out over four months:

• September 1: Petrol up by 9 cent, diesel up by 10 cent.

• October: Both petrol and diesel to rise by a further 8 cent.

• November: Petrol to increase by 5 cent and diesel by 7 cent.

• December 1: Final increases of 5 cent on petrol and 7 cent on diesel, bringing the temporary relief measures to an end.

Further Increases Possible

McPartlan warned that additional upward pressure on fuel prices could come from:

• A further carbon tax increase, if announced in the government’s October 6 budget.

• An increase in the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO) from January 1.

He said that, when combined with the phased withdrawal of existing tax reliefs, these measures could push prices up by as much as 35 cent per litre.

The organisation stressed that the figure is an estimate, as the government has yet to make final decisions on the proposed carbon tax changes.

Industry Calls for Long-Term Strategy

Fuels for Ireland warned that removing fuel tax relief while prices remain elevated would place additional financial pressure on households, small businesses and the transport sector.

McPartlan said the issue has already been raised with the Department of Finance, urging the government to adopt a longer-term strategy focused on fuel price stability rather than implementing significant tax increases over a short period.

Global Market Remains Uncertain

Although international oil prices have eased following a temporary reduction in tensions between the United States and Iran, the fuel market remains volatile.

The industry says wholesale fuel prices continue to be affected by:

• Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Higher marine insurance costs.

• Refining expenses.

• Increased transport and energy costs.

As a result, reductions in global crude oil prices are not immediately reflected at Irish filling stations.

According to Fuels for Ireland, it generally takes around three weeks for crude oil to be purchased, refined and distributed to forecourts across Ireland. However, changes in international wholesale prices for refined fuels can affect new supply purchases much more quickly.

The organisation said fuel prices over the coming months will ultimately depend on developments in the Middle East, movements in international energy markets, and the Government’s final taxation decisions in the Budget.

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