GP Numbers Failing to Keep Pace with Ireland’s Growing and Ageing Population

Dublin: The number of general practitioners (GPs) in Ireland is not keeping up with population growth and rising healthcare demand, according to the Irish College of General Practitioners (ICGP). While GP numbers have increased by 10 per cent in recent years, the population has grown by 9 per cent over the same period, leaving a continuing shortfall in primary care services.

ICGP Medical Director Dr Diarmuid Quinlan said Ireland currently has around 4,650 GPs, up from approximately 4,200 in 2019. However, based on current demand and projected population growth, he estimates that the country now requires more than 6,500 GPs to meet patient needs.

Ireland’s population has reached 5.2 million and is expected to rise to 5.5 million by 2030. This growth includes an additional 300,000 people with chronic illnesses, which alone will require an estimated 300 extra GPs. Dr Quinlan also highlighted the need to significantly expand nursing support in general practice, noting that the current workforce of around 2,200 practice nurses would need to be almost doubled.

The challenge is compounded by an ageing population. People aged 65 and over are the largest users of healthcare services. Their numbers have increased from 720,000 in 2019 to an estimated 830,000 by the end of 2024 and are expected to exceed one million by 2030. Although Ireland has the highest life expectancy in the EU, this brings increased demand for long-term and complex care.

Chronic disease prevalence is rising sharply with age. Around 30 per cent of people aged 45 to 65 live with two chronic conditions, while two-thirds of those aged 65 to 84 have three or more. Among people aged over 85, 85 per cent live with four or more chronic conditions, including heart, lung and bone disease, dementia and chronic kidney disease. Polypharmacy is also common, with five per cent of those over 65 taking more than 15 medications.

Dr Quinlan warned that GP capacity will come under further strain due to retirements. An estimated 600 GPs are currently aged 65 or over, with about half aged over 70. Many of these practitioners are expected to retire by 2030, significantly reducing the workforce.

To address the shortfall, the ICGP is working with the HSE and the Department of Health to expand GP training. The number of GP trainees has increased from 155 in 2015 to 350 in 2024, reaching a target originally set for 2026. However, Dr Quinlan noted that around 5 to 10 per cent of trained GPs migrate abroad for personal reasons, further limiting workforce growth.

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