Dublin: Ireland is set to experience further rain and strong winds over the coming days, although weather models suggest conditions could become calmer during the second half of October as a high-pressure system develops.
Forecasters expect unsettled weather to continue until at least next Thursday, with heavy rain forecast in several areas and strong winds posing risks along exposed coastal regions. Conditions are then expected to become more settled if the anticipated high-pressure system establishes itself.
Strong wind warning for three counties
Met Éireann has issued a 12-hour strong wind warning for Galway, Mayo and Donegal, running from 6am to 6pm on Wednesday.
Southwesterly winds are expected to become very strong at times, with particular caution advised in coastal areas. The conditions could make driving and cycling difficult, while high tides and large waves may cause waves to break over exposed coastal areas.
Today, Tuesday, is expected to bring sunny spells and scattered showers. Rain may be heavier and more widespread across Ulster, with a possibility of thunderstorms. Showers are forecast to ease in southern areas during the afternoon.
Winds will initially come from the west and south-west before easing later in the day. Maximum temperatures are expected to range between 13 and 16 degrees Celsius, with cooler conditions in the north-west.
Tuesday night is expected to be mostly dry, although western and north-western areas may experience cloudy conditions with light rain or drizzle. Minimum temperatures will range from 8 to 12 degrees Celsius, while winds are forecast to strengthen in western and north-western areas overnight.
Heavy rain is expected across the south-west, west and north on Wednesday night, spreading to other parts of the country by Thursday morning.
Conditions should gradually improve as the rain moves eastwards on Thursday morning and afternoon. However, showers are likely to persist in Atlantic coastal areas. Temperatures are expected to reach between 13 and 16 degrees Celsius, with southerly winds turning westerly and gradually easing.
High pressure could bring calmer weather until the end of October
Kenneth McDonagh of the Donegal Weather Channel said the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model suggests a high-pressure system could develop from October 16 and potentially remain in place until the end of the month, particularly beyond October 25.
The GFS 06Z model is also indicating a similar pattern, with high pressure potentially persisting until October 23. McDonagh said the agreement between the different forecasting models increased confidence in the possibility of more settled conditions.
He noted that the UK Met Office’s forecasting model, known as UKMO, indicates the development of a blocking high-pressure system over western Europe, near Ireland and the UK, over the coming weekends.
The GEM model also suggests that a strong area of high pressure could form to the west of Ireland, potentially restricting the arrival of Atlantic weather systems.
Although high pressure could bring calmer conditions, it would not necessarily mean warmer weather across the country.
Cooler temperatures and possible frost
Forecasters suggest that daytime temperatures during the anticipated settled spell could remain relatively low, averaging between 10 and 12 degrees Celsius.
There is also a possibility of wintry conditions, including snow, depending on how the weather pattern develops.
Night-time temperatures could fall to around zero degrees Celsius or below next weekend and during the following week, increasing the risk of frost in some areas. Motorists may need to prepare for frost-covered windscreens during the colder mornings.
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