NPHET expects to see a sharp decline in COVID-19 cases in Ireland by March
DUBLIN: The National Public Health Emergency Team hopes to see a sharp drop in COVID-19 cases by March, as restrictions remain in place along with vaccinations. The Department of Health estimates that the number of cases will reach between 400 and 500 by early March.
The reproduction number is expected to be between 0.7 and 0.9 by mid-March and the case numbers are expected to fall between to be 200 and 350. Now the reproduction number is between 0.65 and 0.85, said Professor Philip Nolan, chair of the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group.
He said the virus incidence rate in Ireland is decreasing. Currently, 90% of the cases in the country are caused by the UK B117 variant. “People are trying as hard as they have been over the last six weeks to suppress the disease, they’re succeeding,” Prof. Nolan said.
He said there has been a slight increase in COVID close contacts at present. Nolan said the average number of contacts rose from 2.1 to 2.4. “For the last two weeks it’s been essentially 90% or nine out of 10 cases are this new variant,” said Nolan. It has a 30 to 60% chance of transmitting the virus. Due to the high number of cases, it is difficult for public health teams to monitor cases and determine where transmission occurs, said Prof. Nolan.
In a letter to the government last Thursday, Deputy Chief Medical Officer Dr. Ronan Glynn had shared the expectation that there would be between 300 and 100 COVID cases per day in mid-March.
Vaccine and its side effects
As of February 11, 2103 cases of suspected side-effects from COVID-19 vaccines were reported in the country, said Dr. Lorraine Nolan, Chief Executive of the Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA). These reports are in the context of 260,000 vaccine doses.
About 95% of these are related to the messenger RNA vaccines like Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Prof. Nolan says all reported side effects are consistent with the safety profile of clinical trials.
The most common suspected side-effects are dizziness, headache, tiredness, and itching or rash at the injection site.
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