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Experts predicts second wave of COVID-19 in India will end by July, and third wave will emerge after 6 months

NEW DELHI: Experts estimate that the second wave of COVID-19 in India is likely to subside by July this year. The three-member panel of scientists set up by the central government also said they expect a third wave in six to eight months. The fairly optimistic projections made by a committee formed by the Department of Science and Technology under the Science Ministry were first reported by India Today, a national media outlet.

The panel’s assessment was based on the SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach) model that helps predict the intensity of pandemics. The experts predicts that the number of COVID-19 cases per day will reach 1.5 lakh by the end of May and will reach 20,000 by the end of June.

A member of the panel, Professor Manindra Agarwal, said “states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Kerala, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Haryana besides Delhi and Goa have already seen their peak.” Prof. Agarwal expects that states in east, north, and northeast, as well as Tamil Nadu and UT Puducherry, will see their peaks by the end of this month.

According to SUTRA model, a third wave is expected in six to eight months. But its impact can be controlled. Prof. Agarwal said the third wave would not be widespread and many people would not be affected by the disease as they have gained immunity through vaccination.


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